Has Zambia’s Mining Renaissance Arrived?
Zambia Records More Upticks in Its Mining Sector
Copper mining has been the backbone of the Zambian economy for the last 100 years. However, production has been declining under the strain of old mining technology, volatile commodity pricing, and poor economic fundamentals. This underperformance has seen Zambia fall from the top 10 list of the world’s largest copper producers. On the bright side, 2024 saw a 12% increase from 732,583.45 tonnes in 2023 to 820,670 tonnes in 2024, suggesting better times are ahead for the copper-dependent nation.
Despite largely depending on copper, Zambia’s mining production also includes other major commodities. In 2024, Zambian mining production included:
- Gold: 3,141.81 kilograms
- Nickel: 21,039.55 metric tonnes
- Manganese: 2024 figures pending; 2023 output was approximately 171,000 metric tonnes
- Zinc: 134,932.48 metric tonnes
- Gemstones: 31,578 kilograms
- Cement: 3,262,318.78 metric tonnes
However, copper remains the crown jewel in Zambia’s mining mix, accounting for 70% of total export earnings in 2024.
A resurgence in legacy mines on the Copperbelt, the hub of mining in the country, largely drove the production recovery. Mopani Copper Mines was recently acquired by International Resource Holdings (IRH), KCM saw a reinjection of cash by Vedanta Resources, and Barrick Gold’s Lumwana Mine ramped up production in 2024. All these positive developments occurred against the backdrop of reduced energy supply critical for mining, resulting from the worst drought in over 100 years that has severely impacted hydroelectric power generation at the Kariba Dam and other facilities.
Increased Investment in Mining
Zambia has set an ambitious target to produce 3 million tonnes of copper by 2031. If achieved, this would position Zambia as the third-highest producer in the world behind Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Investment in the mining sector has seen an exponential rise over the last three years, driven by the tailwind of Zambia’s 2021 elections. To this end, major players in the mining sector have announced more than $10 billion of new investment in the ageing mining sector.
Some key commitments include:
- $2 billion from Barrick Gold to increase copper production at the Lumwana Mine
- $1.35 billion from First Quantum Minerals at Kansanshi Mine in Solwezi to extend the life of the mine
- $2 billion planned investment by KoBold Metals to develop the high-grade Mingomba copper deposit, located in the Northwestern Province
- $300 million by JCHX Mining to revive the ailing Chibuluma Mine and extend its life
Strategically, the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) partnered with Mercuria Energy Trading of Switzerland to develop a commodities trading company, leveraging Zambia’s mineral wealth and enhancing economic value. According to a press release from IDC, the deal will “help Zambia build independent institutional marketing and trading capabilities for copper, the country’s largest mineral export.”
Improved Policy and Micro-Environment
The surge in mining investment is driven by regulatory and policy improvements aimed at positioning Zambia as a worthy destination for investment dollars. These policies aim to achieve, among other objectives, economic diversification to replace mining as the primary revenue source, fostering a competitive and stable environment, increasing local ownership and participation, and strengthening monitoring mechanisms to track grades and volumes.
To achieve this, three primary policy directives have been published so far, pending full implementation:
- The Minerals Regulation Commission Bill 2024
- The Draft Local Content Regulations
- The Critical Minerals Strategy
When fully implemented, these proposals promise significant changes to enhance the environment for increased investment and project development in the sector.
Furthermore, the 2023 National Budget introduced significant tax revisions that laid the foundation for increased investments. These revisions included a reduction of the property transfer tax on the transfer of mineral rights held by exploration companies from 10 per cent to 7.5 per cent, deductibility of the mineral royalty tax when determining the taxable income of mining companies, and the introduction of a presumptive tax (4-10%) for artisanal and small-scale mining, based on gross turnover. This legislation aimed to stabilise the tax regime and provide mining companies with significant tax relief to spur investment.
Challenges Abound: Social Concerns
Despite the positive investment trajectory in the mining sector, social and environmental challenges continue to pose a serious threat to the industry. On the social front, local communities continue to demand more involvement from mining houses. The National Local Content Strategy (2018-2022) has failed to deliver the promise to “promote inclusive growth and sustainable development through value addition by increased utilisation of locally available goods and services in growth sectors.” This has left Zambians watching on the sidelines without fully realising the potential of their national resources.
Environmental Risks
Mining continues to pose a significant environmental risk to the country. The country is still grappling with the lead contamination from the tailings of the Broken Hill mine in Kabwe, which ceased operations in 1994.
Adding to these concerns, early 2025, a major acid spill occurred from a tailings dam in the Copperbelt, resulting in over 50 million litres of concentrated acid, dissolved solids, and heavy metals flowing into a stream that feeds into the Kafue River. The acid spill could affect millions of Zambians well beyond the Copperbelt, as contamination was detected as far as 100 kilometres downstream. This incident highlights the ongoing environmental management challenges facing the industry.
The Bright Future Ahead
When the potential of Zambian mining is fully unlocked, everyone stands to benefit. The country could earn millions of dollars in foreign exchange, but desperately needs to halt the falling currency. The presence of mines will benefit local communities through job creation and enterprise development, effectively increasing household incomes.
Manufacturing plants would be revived to feed the demand for inputs and equipment used in mining. Infrastructure supporting the commodity’s export could see significant improvements, especially rail, which is the most viable alternative to road. The Lobito Corridor is one such optimistic development that will connect Zambia to the port of Lobito in Angola.
Furthermore, increased mining production would free up much-needed resources to invest in energy projects, thereby diversifying the country’s energy sector and reducing its strong dependence on hydropower, which has proven vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
As the demand for critical minerals that support the global energy transition grows, copper becomes an increasingly desired commodity. Zambia has a rare opportunity to position itself as the supplier of choice if its ambition is supported by a transparent and flexible policy, enhanced environmental protection, and community empowerment with inclusion at all stages of the value chain.
So, has Zambia’s mining renaissance arrived? The evidence suggests a resounding “yes”, but the sustainability of this revival will depend on how well the country balances economic growth with environmental stewardship and social responsibility in the years to come.
